By Josh Gilbert, Lead Analyst, APAC & Middle East at etoro
Abu Dhabi, UAE- Oil prices remain at the centre of the market conversation, with Brent trading just below US$103 a barrel as uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues, according to Josh Gilbert, Lead Analyst APAC and Middle East at etoro.
“President Trump has described recent conversations with Iran as positive, but oil prices show that investors are still waiting for a clear path to reopening the strait,” said Gilbert. “Higher fuel costs are already being felt in the US, and the impact reaches households and businesses worldwide. That keeps inflation pressure high and creates a headwind for equities.”
“With Saudi Arabia’s East–West pipeline only partially restored, the UAE’s pipeline from Abu Dhabi’s oilfields to Fujairah has become an important alternative export route.”
“The UAE’s infrastructure is earning its keep in this market,” Gilbert said. “ADNOC has also reportedly been a leading buyer of discounted Iraqi crude in recent months, helping keep that supply moving. When dependable barrels are scarce, every shipment that reaches a buyer matters.”
Gilbert cautioned that any period in which the UAE leads Gulf exports may be temporary. The Fujairah pipeline is already operating at around its 1.8 million barrel-a-day capacity, while Saudi Arabia has substantially more oil to export once its pipeline returns to service.
“The longer-term shift is the flexibility the UAE has gained since leaving OPEC in May,” Gilbert said. “With a target of 5 million barrels a day of production capacity by 2027 and no OPEC quota, it will be well placed to bring more supply to market once Hormuz reopens.”
Gilbert said investors should watch the pace of repairs to Saudi Arabia’s pipeline alongside developments in US–Iran talks.
“Headlines can move oil prices quickly in either direction. For global investors, the broader picture remains cautious: oil above US$100 adds pressure on central banks at a time when several major economies are already raising rates. Until there is a lasting resolution in the Middle East, the conflict will continue to weigh on growth forecasts.”
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