Vijay Valecha, Chief Investment Officer, Century Financial
Global markets remained in focus as investors weighed renewed strength in US equities, shifting oil prices, currency movements and volatility in precious metals. In this latest market update, Vijay Valecha, Chief Investment Officer at Century Financial, shares his outlook on US stocks, crude oil, the US Dollar Index, and gold and silver, along with key technical levels and current UAE gold prices.
US Markets
US equities extended their rebound in the previous session, with the Nasdaq 100 gaining 2.83% and the S&P 500 advancing 1.49%. At the time of writing, the Nasdaq 100 is trading at 30,485, while the S&P 500 stands at 7,770. The rally was led by technology and AI stocks, with easing oil prices and lower Treasury yields improving the backdrop for growth equities.
The AI trade remains the primary market catalyst. AMD surged nearly 10% to cross a $1 trillion market valuation, while Arm Holdings gained 17.16%, Astera Labs 12.36%, Intel 12.14% and Meta 11.43%. Intel’s reported ability to meet only around 50% of customer chip demand further highlights the strength of semiconductor demand. Grail also surged 34% ahead of an FDA advisory-panel review of its multi-cancer blood test, while Warner Bros. Discovery gained 10.79% following the Paramount Skydance settlement that removes a major regulatory obstacle to their proposed merger. Moderna gained 12.27% ahead of cancer-vaccine data, while Novo Nordisk fell 7.96% as investors questioned its pricing power and longer-term growth outlook.
For intraday traders, bias remains bullish, supported by strong AI momentum, falling oil prices and retreating Treasury yields. Technically, the Nasdaq 100 has immediate support at 29,792, which aligns with the descending trendline and 9-day EMA, followed by the 20-day EMA at 29,565. Immediate resistance is at the all-time high of 30,759. The S&P 500 has immediate support at 7,700, which aligns with the descending trendline, followed by the previous session low at 7,645. Immediate resistance is at the all-time high of 7,816.
Crude Oil
Crude oil is up 1% at 97.078 in today’s trade after falling for four consecutive sessions as traders weigh the potential for a diplomatic breakthrough against persistent risks to physical supply in the Middle East. Easing supply concerns in the Middle East and renewed diplomatic efforts to end the US-Iran war continued to weigh on prices. Markets are closely watching President Donald Trump’s address to the UN General Assembly, with a potential meeting with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and further discussions with Gulf nations and China adding to expectations that a diplomatic resolution could reduce the geopolitical premium in crude.
Physical supply signals have also improved. Saudi Arabia moved around 2.9 million barrels of crude per day through the Strait of Hormuz over the past six days, while satellite imagery showed supertankers with a combined capacity of roughly 14 million barrels at Saudi Arabia’s Gulf export terminals over the weekend, the highest observed tanker count since at least June. These developments suggest Saudi Arabia is increasingly able to maintain exports despite disruptions to its East-West pipeline, easing fears of an extended supply shortage.
However, the downside remains constrained by the still-fragile regional supply situation. A tanker was reportedly struck in the Strait of Hormuz, while output at Libya’s largest oil field has fallen by more than half following a pipeline shutdown. For now, improving flows and diplomacy are taking some geopolitical premium out of crude, but ongoing infrastructure and shipping risks mean the market remains sensitive to any setback in the Middle East.
WTI continues to hold above its 20-day EMA, with the level once again acting as a constructive support zone after successfully containing downside pressure in the previous session. As long as prices remain above this moving average, the near-term bias remains stable, although upside momentum is likely to face resistance around 98.975. For Brent crude, holding above 102.22 remains critical, as a break below this level could expose the 20-day EMA near 101.15, which served as an effective support area yesterday and remains an important line of defense for bulls. On the upside, resistance is seen at 103.36, where the 4-hour 20-period EMA aligns with a descending trendline, creating a strong confluence zone that is likely to cap gains unless buyers can generate a decisive breakout.
U.S. Dollar Index
The dollar index is up 0.07% today and is currently trading at $100.50.
From a fundamental standpoint, the US Dollar continues to trade on a stronger footing following the Fed’s decision last week to begin tightening monetary policy. However, the Greenback, according to Bloomberg, could face challenges amid increased risk-on sentiment as investors look to the upcoming US-China summit for signs of improving relations between the world’s two largest economies. On the Middle East front, hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough have improved investor mood after news that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian will lead a delegation at the UN General Assembly, alongside comments from US President Donald Trump indicating he would likely be open to a side meeting.
From a technical standpoint, the hourly chart shows tailwinds from strong momentum, suggesting a bullish stance for the day. On the hourly chart, it is trading near the support of an upward-trending channel, suggesting attractive entry opportunities at the current price level, with targets reaching $100.75. On the flip side, the nearest support is at 100.30. This level acts as strong horizontal and channel support; a failure here could bring bears back in control.
Gold & Silver
Precious metals rebounded in a slightly volatile session on Tuesday, with gold closing 0.35% higher while silver gained 1.56%. However, weakness returned on Wednesday, with gold trading 0.75% lower and silver 2.08% lower in the Asian session.
Gold has been especially sensitive to recent fluctuations in oil prices as investors decide if the high levels of energy prices will be sufficient to maintain inflationary pressures and thus lead to further increases in Fed interest rates. Since higher borrowing costs generally weaken the case for holding gold because the metal does not pay interest, its attractiveness as a hedge within a portfolio seems to be standing firm thanks to strong inflows into gold ETFs and demand from central banks, even though US real yields are rising and the strength of the dollar is limiting immediate gains. Chinese gold ETFs collected about $2 billion over the past month and more than $600 million in the past week by itself, with that weekly amount exceeding that of the US-listed ETFs. With domestic Chinese yields declining and the yuan stable, demand for Chinese ETFs is likely to continue, supported by the PBOC adding the largest amount of gold to its reserves in August since 2023.
Technically, Gold rebounded with support from the 200-day EMA around the $4320 level, continuing its range-bound movement since the start of the month. A decisive close below this level would need to be achieved to confirm a downtrend in the short term with the next potential support coming in around the $4261 level from an upward-sloping trendline connecting the lows of 17th July, 29th July, 3rd August, and 16th September. Silver shows a similar technical profile and would need to clear the $67.50 level from recent highs decisively to potentially trigger buying momentum. 200-day EMA lies near $65.56, with yesterday’s lows near $64.56 providing near-term support.
Gold prices in the UAE today are as follows:
24 Carat – AED 523.50
22 Carat – AED 484.75
21 Carat – AED 464.75
18 Carat – AED 398.50
SOURCE: MEDIA RELEASE / SUPPLIED CONTENT WITH IMAGE ; AI GENERATED IMAGE ALSO USED
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