Winners, Risks and What’s Next?
By Nagham Hassan, Market Analyst at eToro
Abu Dhabi, UAE- Just two weeks after one of the most anticipated public listings in market history, SpaceX remains at the center of investor attention as the market continues to assess its valuation and long-term prospects.
The company debuted on June 12 at $135 per share, with trading opening around $150. Investor enthusiasm quickly pushed the stock higher, with shares reaching approximately $226 within days and briefly making SpaceX the fourth most valuable publicly traded company in the world, ahead of both Amazon and Microsoft.
However, the rally proved short-lived. Over the following sessions, the stock experienced a sharp pullback, shedding more than $600 billion in market value and retreating toward its IPO price. On Tuesday, shares briefly traded below the $150 debut level before recovering to close marginally higher. As of today, the stock is trading around $157 per share, remaining above the IPO price but significantly below its recent highs.
Several factors have contributed to the volatility. A key consideration is the limited share float. Only around 4.2% of total shares were made available during the IPO, amplifying price movements and increasing sensitivity to shifts in investor sentiment.
Markets are also beginning to price in upcoming lock-up expirations. A 20% insider share unlock linked to the company’s August earnings release is expected to increase the number of shares available for trading, with additional unlocks anticipated later in August and September.
Investor focus has also turned to SpaceX’s recent debt issuance. As shares came under pressure, the company launched its first bond offering, initially targeting approximately $20 billion in senior unsecured notes before increasing the size of the deal to $25 billion following nearly $90 billion in investor demand. Proceeds are expected to be used to refinance a bridge loan associated with the company’s merger with xAI and support future AI-related investments.
While the strong demand for the bond offering highlights continued investor confidence in the company’s long-term growth story, the timing of the fundraising effort so soon after a record-setting IPO raised questions among some market participants.
Commenting on the stock’s recent performance, Nagham Hassan, Market Analyst at eToro, said: “The extreme volatility we’ve seen since SpaceX’s market debut reflects the challenge investors face when valuing a company of this scale and ambition. A limited public float, expectations around insider share unlocks, and the company’s move into the debt markets have all contributed to significant price swings. While the pullback may appear dramatic, the stock remains above its IPO price, suggesting investors continue to see long-term potential despite the near-term uncertainty.”
With the company’s first earnings report expected in August and several significant lock-up expirations approaching, the coming months are likely to play a key role in shaping investor sentiment and establishing a clearer picture of the company’s public market valuation.
- AS TOLD TO EMIRATESREPORTER.COM BY eToro
